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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady

 

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates managed to stay sideways today after beginning the week with a move higher yesterday. This is a victory all things considered. Rates take guidance from multiple sources. When it comes to mortgages, the prices of mortgage-backed bonds are the key ingredients in determining rates. While other factors had a massively outsized impact during the market volatility in March and April, mortgage rates have returned to their normal habit of following bond market cues. If mortgages are taking cues from the broader bond market, where is the bond market getting its cues? In the past few weeks, bonds are just as likely to be watching the stock market for guidance as anything else. This is fairly logical considering both stocks and bonds have a stake in the nation's economic recovery and the...(read more)

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Freddie's Loan Portfolio on Pace to Increase by 14.3 Percent This Year

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 14.3 percent in April, up from a 9.2 percent gain in March and the largest rate since December. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.396 trillion compared to $2.368 trillion at the end of March and $2.216 trillion a year earlier. The growth rate for the year to date is 8.4 percent. Purchases and Issuances totaled $88,879 billion and Sales were ($0.770) billion. The March numbers were $58,830 billion and ($3,165) billion, respectively. Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $52.100 billion in April compared to $33.300 billion in March and representing a 69 percent share of total single-family mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances compared to 63 percent...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Rising Rate Trend Intact, But Motivation is Required

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture. Even then, such trends are by no means crystal balls. At best, they can provide some lines on either side of whatever road we're currently on. With that in mind, we'd reached the lower end of the range last Thursday and had begun to bounce by Friday. Now this week, the first two trading days are confirming the bounce (unless today's losses fade). The reassuring part of today's weaker performance so far is that it has required some specific motivation. In other words, bonds haven't moved to higher yields simply because this trend says they are supposed to. In today's...(read more)

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LO Jobs; Servicing, DPA, CRM Products; Warehouse Deal News; More Investor Changes

 

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Making the rounds is, “The spread of Covid-19 is based on two factors. #1: How dense the population is. #2: How dense the population is.” As a nation, we remain divided on virtually everything about COVID. There is well-written article on how half the calls on social media for reopening the nation are from bots . Millions of citizens continue to stay home but most, if not all the states, are reopening to some degree, and the Memorial Day weekend saw ramped up traffic on the roads and people “out and about.” No one can provide an exact timeline how things will go, although the Fed is expected to leave overnight funding rates at 0 percent well into next year, if not beyond: inflation is the last of our worries. Three months ago, who knew that we were going to be where...(read more)

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Home Purchase Apps Highest Since January

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Purchase mortgage applications rose for the 6 th straight week, driving the Mortgage Bankers Association's Market Composite Index back into positive territory. The Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended May 22. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose by 9 percent compared to one week earlier and was 7 percent higher on an unadjusted basis. The volume of purchase applications pulled ahead of the level during the same week in 2019 by 9 percent, the first year-over-year gain since the week ended March 6. The Refinance Index decreased 0.2 percent from the previous week but remained 176 percent higher than the same week...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Moving Higher to Start New Week

 

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates hit new all-time lows last week. In fact, for many lenders, records were broken on more than one day. That raised the risk of a bounce back this week and if today is any indication, that's what we're seeing. The average lender is back in line with last Tuesday's rate offerings for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. All that having been said, rate movement is pretty minimal by normal standards as the bond market (which underlies interest rate momentum) has been relatively calm and sideways after coming to terms with the initial shock of the coronavirus market impact. In many cases, borrowers would see the same note rate they saw last Friday (in those cases, the upfront costs associated with that rates would likely be slightly higher). Loan Originator Perspective Bonds...(read more)

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April New Home Sales Crush Forecasts

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

New home sales, rather than dropping like a rock, rose 0.6 percent in April according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Part of the gain is due to a revision of the March sales numbers from an original estimate of 627,000 seasonally adjusted annual units to 619,000. This added to the month's 15.4 percent decline from February. While April's sales of newly constructed homes were down 6.2 percent from a year earlier, the April estimate of 623,000 units is totally unexpected. The consensus of analysts polled by Econoday was for an annual pace of 495,000 units with the highest estimate at 592,000 units. They weren't alone; the consensus from MarketWatch was 480,000 units while Trading Economics expected a decline of 21.9 percent. While sales estimates...(read more)

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Home Prices Still Moved Higher in March

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Even as the COVID-19 pandemic began to hobble home sales in many locations, home prices continued to increase. the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) House Price Index (HPI) held to its 5.7 percent gains the prior month while the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Indices posted larger annual increases in March than in February. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.4 percent annual gain in March , up from 4.2 percent the previous month. The 10-City Composite's annual increase came in at 3.4 percent, up from 3.0 percent and the 20-City Composite rose from a 3.5 percent growth in February to 3.9 percent. The National Index posted a 0.8 percent month-over-month increase, while the 10-City...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Beatings Can Continue Until Market Morale Deteriorates

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

No need to overcomplicate the current narrative: the overall financial market is attempting to balance the reopening of the economy with the risk of COVID resurgence, all the while receiving a boost from massive global stimulus efforts. No matter how pessimistic anyone wants to be about the longer-term economic damage associated with coronavirus, the Fed and Treasury are throwing so much money and accommodation at the problem that markets are chanting the age-old mantra "don't fight the Fed." And that can be extrapolated to include the world's other major central banks. Bonds are realistic. They know there is massive economic damage that can't be immediately healed by stimulus efforts. That's why the 10yr yield is trading around 0.7% despite a massive glut of supply...(read more)

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Broker, eSign, Marketing Products; USDA, FHA, Freddie, Fannie News and Trends

 

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I doubt if I have ever pressed “7” or “8” on my microwave oven keypad. Speaking of 7 & 8 (I know, a weak segue), originators are keenly aware of what builders are seeing, economy-wise, and 78 percent of them did not lower their prices in April. Not only that, but 41% of home sales had bidding wars, according to Redfin . “Demand for homes has picked back up after hitting rock bottom in April, and that uptick paired with a lack of supply is a recipe for bidding wars. Homebuyers are getting back out there, searching for more space as they realize using their home as an office and school may become the norm. But sellers are still holding off on listing their homes, partially due to economic uncertainty and concerns of health risks. In some hot neighborhoods, there...(read more)

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The Sun Also Rises For The Housing and Mortgage Markets

 

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

There's no shortage of bad news when it comes to the economy and the housing market. But that's no surprise considering the circumstances. The sheer size and speed of the economic contraction makes it easy to worry about what the future will look like. Has coronavirus changed things forever? Is it true that many jobs have been permanently destroyed? I don't know. No one can really know. Many of the more troubling questions won't be able to be answered any time soon. No one can deny things are bad and that some things may stay bad for a long time. But hidden amid the understandable sea of pessimism, there are some reasons for hope. We're not talking about the kind of hope that makes us complacent to the ongoing economic risks. Rather, there are simply some positive counterpoints to the abundant...(read more)

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First Wave of Forbearances Almost Doubles Delinquency Rates

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The years-long downward trend of mortgage delinquencies appears to have come to an abrupt end in April. Black Knight, in its "first look" at the month's loan performance data, said the national delinquency rate shot up 90 percent compared to March and is 86 percent higher than in April 2019 at 6.45 percent. That rate indicates the percentage of active loans that were 30 days or more past due but not in foreclosure with 3.40 million loans in that category, 1.61 million more than the prior month and 1.59 more than in April 2019. Black Knight reported earlier this month that, as of April 30, more than 3.8 million home mortgages had entered forbearance plans. They subsequently reported that some 46 percent of borrowers in forbearance at the end of April, had continued to make at least part of their...(read more)

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More Evidence That Forbearance is Widely Being Taken as a Precaution

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The number of homeowners in mortgage forbearance plans continues to increase, reaching 4.75 million by May 19. This is 9.0 percent of all active borrowers nationwide and represents a little more than $1 trillion in unpaid principal. The number of plans grew by 93,000 borrowers between May 12 and May 19. Black Knight, in its weekly report on the forbearance program, offered to homeowners who have been financially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, notes that the most recent increase is down 70 percent from the 325,000 new plans during the first week of May , and is 93 percent lower than the 1.4 million plans opened the first week of April. This slowdown suggests that volumes may be beginning to flatten , warranting a shift in servicer focus from forbearance pipeline growth to forbearance pipeline...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Not Reading Too Much Into Things Ahead of 3.5-Day Weekend

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Treasuries started out stronger after overnight drama between China and Hong Kong caused a " risk-off " trade (i.e. sell stocks, buy bonds). MBS continue lagging Treasuries. What's up with that? The performance between MBS and Treasuries can always vary to some extent. Divergences are more easily seen in a few specific situations. One of the most common situations is an obvious risk-off rally (or "flight-to-safety," if you prefer). This type of rally benefits the most basic, most liquid, least risky bonds first and foremost. Treasuries fit that bill better than anything. None of this is a very big deal in the bigger picture. MBS are still in a process of finding their range versus Treasuries, and there has been far more drama in the past few months than we could ever...(read more)

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LO Jobs; CRM, Marketing, Lending Products; Tools for Borrowers; Rates: a Global Snapshot

 

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The Friday before a three-day weekend (honoring the men and women who died while serving in the U.S. military)! Can’t you just feel that anxiousness to go and hike, to have a meal out, to see people, to sit in a restaurant? No one can argue that social distancing has increased the rate of infection, right? Many are “chomping at the bit,” weighing statements from scientists & politicians, especially as news continues to come out from people about catching COVID supposedly having never left their house . Or statistics, like as of May 17, about 91,000 lives have been lost to the coronavirus but those aged 65 or older accounted for 80 percent of these deaths , and residents or employees of long-term care facilities accounting for one third of all deaths . And so many working...(read more)

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