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MBS Day Ahead: Without Any Surprises, It's Just Another Weekend Trading Day

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For the US bond market, the day after Thanksgiving is frequently a reflection of the EU bond market. Strength in EU bonds translated to 10yr yields improving by 2bps (.862%). To be more precise, EU markets and US futures markets were still open yesterday. Stocks and bond yields (both at home and in the EU) moved moderately lower. As of this morning, EU bond markets were mostly holding yesterday's gains despite a full recovery in equities futures (S&P). US bonds are siding with EU bonds as opposed to the " risk-on " vibes suggested by the stock market bounce. MBS are up 2 ticks (0.06) in early trading. Nothing notable to report so far. There are no scheduled events of note on the calendar. Absent a significant and unexpected headline, today is effectively an early start to...(read more)

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High level Ops, Implementation Jobs; Demographics for MLO's: Who's Locking and Who's Not?

 

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Left over pumpkin pie for breakfast today? Have you begun your company’s Holiday Cookbook yet? (Help corporate culture by sending an email, ad a recipe, send it on to someone else working from home, keep it going.) Remember when “flexible” working arrangements made the news? For example, flexible work arrangements (think gig employment, independent contractors, and freelancers… and robots?) accounted for 94 percent of the net employment growth in the United States from 2005 to 2015. How the government regulates the treatment of these people will have broad reaching effects across the entire economy. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump know a little something about employment, and homes. They are expanding their “cottage” by the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster...(read more)

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Forbearances Trending Slightly Higher, Well Below 2020 Peak Levels

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Despite a second consecutive modest weekly increase , the number of loans in forbearance continue to trend well below those at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Black Knight said there was an uptick of 27,000 loans in forbearance plans during the period ended November 23. That reporting period was one day shorter than the usual week in preparation for the Thanksgiving holiday. The company reminds readers that "mild increases like this have been common in the middle of the month . Since the recovery started, the strongest declines have typically been seen early in the month, as expiring forbearance plans are removed." The reporting period ended with 2.78 million homeowners in forbearance. This is approximately 5.3 percent of the 53 million active mortgages in the U.S., up from 5.2 percent last...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Little-Changed But The Fed Raises Some Doubts

 

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates have been operating relatively close to their all-time lows recently and today was no exception. The Fed raised some doubts as to how much longer that would be the case this afternoon when it released the minutes of its most recent policy meeting (from 3 weeks ago). The Fed questioned whether its mortgage-specific bond buying was having any ill effects. That's only a vague hint of a threat, to be fair, but on top of that, market participants also felt the Fed did less than expected to telegraph any enhancement of its bond buying plans (something that traders saw as a stronger possibility for the upcoming Fed announcement in mid-December). The market reaction was almost negligible in the bigger picture, but it looks like it would give a modest bump to rates if markets had more...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Fed Minutes Hurt MBS, But Not Quite As Badly As It Seemed

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Fed Minutes Hurt MBS, But Not Quite As Badly As It Seemed Today's Fed Minutes offered a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago. Markets expected there would be more to learn on the Fed's debate over its bond buying plan. They were not disappointed at the level of information, but MBS were a bit disappointed by the specifics. Prices fell moderately as a result, but at times, the losses looked much bigger than they were due to the illiquid trading conditions that are typical for the day before Thanksgiving. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 778k vs 730k f'cast, 748k prev Durable Goods Core CapEx 0.7 vs 0.5 f'cast, 1.9 prev Q3 GDP (1st revision) 33.1 vs 33.2 f'cast, 33.1 prev New Home...(read more)

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Freddie Mac on Track For 25% More Loans This Year, Most of Them Refis

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 25.7 percent in October compared to a 17.5 percent gain in September. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.625 trillion compared to $2.579 trillion the prior month and $2.301 trillion a year earlier. The growth rate for the year to date is 15.2 percent. Purchases and Issuances totaled $137.285 billion and Sales were ($1.706) billion. The September numbers were $114.386 billion and ($3.064) billion, respectively. Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $89.7 billion in October compared to $70.9 billion in September, representing a 71 percent share of total single-family mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances compared to 69 percent the previous month...(read more)

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New Home Sale Refuse to Back Down From 14-year highs

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Sales of newly constructed single-family homes slipped slightly in October; the second month sales have declined. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the month's sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000, a decrease of 0.3 percent compared to September's revised sales of 1,002,000. New home sales in October were 41.5 percent higher than those in October 2019. Both August and September sales numbers were revised higher in this month's report. September's sales were originally reported at 959,000 and August sales, which had been revised down to 994,000 from a much higher original rate, were boosted back up to 1,001,000. October's sales were higher than expected. Analysts polled by Econoday had forecasts over a range of 935,000...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Unofficial Early Close Versus Fed Minutes That Could Matter

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Here it is! The trading community's ONE guaranteed chance of the year for a 4.5-day weekend. Even though Wednesday is never officially designated as an "early close" by SIFMA, that's often what it becomes in terms of volume and liquidity. The only reason that might not be the case to a normal extent this year is the presence of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. This provides a more detailed account of the Fed meeting that took place 3 weeks ago and thus may offer some insight to the Fed's plans for the December meeting. In short, markets want to know how likely it is that the Fed will extend the average maturity of its bond holdings--something that is net positive for rates. The economic calendar is jam-packed in a visual sense, but the market-moving power is a different story...(read more)

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MLO, Ops Jobs; Doc, Sales, Broker Tools; Disaster Updates; Investors React to Freddie and Fannie Changes

 

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Second only to the excitement of the new phone book coming, the new conforming loan limit is $548,250 for 2021 , up from $510,400 in 2020, and some investors reacted. (More below.) The limit will impact home buyers in a positive way. The spread of COVID-19 (based on 2 things, how dense the population is, and how dense the population is) has led to an entirely new home life for many, and a shift in demand and features in a home. Millennials and Generation Xers are extremely or very interested in certain amenities in a new home like high-speed fiber-to-the-home/broadband internet for remote work, online classes, and high-definition movie streaming, wireless connectivity in common areas like the outdoors, in clubhouses, or near pools, and built-in, ready-to-use smart devices, such as thermostats...(read more)

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Refi Applications Hit 7 Month Highs

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Refinancing increased its already overwhelming dominance of the mortgage market during the week ended November 20. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the refinancing share of mortgage applications topped 70 percent and refinancing accounted for most of the weeks increased volume. MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and was 3 percent higher unadjusted. After being essentially flat since the end of October, the Refinance Index increased 5 percent last week and was 79 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 71.1 percent of total applications from 69.8 percent the previous week. Purchasing volume increased for...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Modest Weakness Persists as Markets Rotate Back Toward Risk

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Modest Weakness Persists as Markets Rotate Back Toward Risk Whether we want to pin the blame on Trump's willingness to begin the transition of power or Yellen being named as Biden's Treasury Secretary yesterday, stocks and bonds have both been doing more to move in a "risk-on" direction over the past 2 days. Yesterday's move in stocks was clearly a response to Yellen (around 3pm ET). Today's move was more gradual and it occurred throughout the morning hours during NYSE trading. All told, it was a bigger deal for stocks, however, as 10yr yields are only 2bps higher at the moment. The bigger news for the mortgage market today was the release of updated conforming loan limits (read more). Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th...(read more)

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How The New Loan Limits Affect Mortgage Rates

 

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

If you follow the MBS Commentary channel on this site, you will have already seen most of the following, but it's relevant for consumers as well. As far as mortgage rates are concerned, the increase in conforming loan limits doesn't have a direct impact, but it does change rate availability for those seeking certain loan amounts. There's a link below where you can see exactly what the new loan limit is for any given county. If you'd like to read the official FHFA press release, here you go , but here's the skinny on the new conforming loan limit of $548,250 for 2021, up from $510,400 in 2020. Which loans does this apply to? Conventional, conforming loans (those sold to or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which is a vast majority of the market), both refinances and purchases Does this...(read more)

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Conforming Loan Limit Increases to $548,250

 

Posted To: MBS Commentary

If you'd like to read the official FHFA press release, here you go , but here's the skinny on the new conforming loan limit of $548,250 for 2021, up from $510,400 in 2020. Which loans does this apply to? Conventional, conforming loans (those sold to or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which is a vast majority of the market), both refinances and purchases Does this apply to FHA/VA/USDA loans? Not immediately, and not equally. FHA will use the new number to announce its own loan limit increases in a week or two. When that happens, you can always use this page to determine your county's limit. VA is a bit different depending on how much entitlement you have ( read more on the VA site ). What's the benefit of having a conforming loan amount? Conforming loans have the lowest...(read more)

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September Home Price Gains Blow Away Forecasts

 

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Annual price increases in September were quite literally off the charts . Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index and the Housing Market Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) recorded annual appreciation of at least 7 percent. The Case-Shiller National Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.0 percent annual gain in September, up from the August increase of 5.8 percent. The National Index posted 1.2 percent month-over-month growth before seasonal adjustment and 1.4 percent afterward. As has been the case since the beginning of the pandemic, housing data from Wayne County, Michigan where Detroit is located has been insufficient to include the city in the indices. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.2 percent and the 20 City...(read more)

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CTO, MLO, Ops Jobs Across the Country; Customer Service, eSignature Tools; MLO Yield Curve Primer

 

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Remember when you drove to work every day? For non-mortgage kicks, here’s a site where you can take a virtual drive through dozens of cities around the world, setting the speed of the vehicle, street noise, and local radio station. (Just click on the city in the list on the right to see what that city is like.) I don’t live in a big city. In fact, “our town is so small, we don’t have a town drunk. We all take turns.” Janet Yellen is expected to take another turn at public service, this time as the first female treasury secretary. As you recall, President Trump declined to reappoint Yellen to the Fed chair after his election in 2016. During his campaign Trump said Yellen should be “ashamed” of her policy actions and accused her of keeping interest rates...(read more)

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